US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%

공개

Screen the entire US equity universe by three hard criteria—trailing 3-year ROE sustained above 15%, positive free cash flow, and reasonable valuation—and surface one stock per day

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 10. 21:25:40

LULU — priced for collapse, built like a compounder

lululemon athletica inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) clears all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 29–42% in FY2023–FY2025, $1.28B in trailing free cash flow (9.29% yield), and a trailing P/E of 9.79× that sits 71% below its own five-year average and 54% below the peer-group median. The stock is at an eight-year low after a Q1 FY2026 guidance cut and downgrade cascade; Michael Burry has 26% of his portfolio in this thesis. Full bull/bear framework included.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 09. 21:44:01

Accenture (ACN) — fortress fundamentals at a 5-year valuation trough

Accenture plc (NYSE: ACN) clears all three hard screening criteria definitively — ROE of 26.72%/26.77%/24.29% in FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR XBRL verified), free cash flow accelerating to $12.5B TTM, and a trailing P/E of 14.30× that is 51% below its 5-year historical average and at the peer-group median. The central tension is a genuine bull/bear split on AI disruption: the market has re-rated the entire IT services sector lower on fears that AI will cannibalize Accenture’s consulting and BPO revenue, but the company’s own GenAI bookings are running at $2.2B per quarter (+76% year-over-year) and the balance sheet is an AA−-rated fortress with net cash and 43× interest coverage. Q3 FY2026 earnings on June 18, 2026 are the next material data point.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 08. 22:22:23

Nike (NKE) — brand in freefall, but passing all three screens at a 12-year low

Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) clears all three hard screening criteria — ROE of 34.63% / 40.09% / 23.29% across FY2023–FY2025 (each above the 15% threshold), positive free cash flow in every measured year, and a trailing P/E of 28.34× that is 9% below Nike's own 5-year average. The central tension is that these passing grades are lagging indicators: FCF has collapsed 84% from its FY2024 peak to $1.05B TTM, operating margin has roughly halved, revenue fell 10% in FY2025 with further declines expected in Q4 FY2026, and both S&P and Moody's have downgraded the company's debt. CEO Elliott Hill's "Win Now" turnaround strategy shows early signs in running (+20% Q1 FY2026) and wholesale recovery, but the revenue inflection date has slipped to Q3 FY2027. Q4 FY2026 earnings on June 30, 2026 are the next major verification event.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 07. 21:32:27

Amgen (AMGN) — $57B in debt, falling FCF, and a GLP-1 moonshot

Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ: AMGN) passes all three hard screening criteria — GAAP ROE of 21–22% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR verified), positive FCF in every measured year, and a trailing P/E of 24.33× that sits 5% below Amgen's own 5-year average. The central tension: a $57.3 billion debt load from the 2023 Horizon Therapeutics acquisition is compressing FCF as biosimilar erosion accelerates on Prolia/XGEVA and ENBREL — while the obesity drug MariTide represents a genuine pipeline option. Closes with a structured bull/bear framework.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 06. 21:28:57

Adobe (ADBE) — 40% cheaper than a year ago, but earnings keep growing

Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ: ADBE) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 37.9% / 38.8% / 39.0% for FY2023–FY2025 (each year well above the 15% threshold), TTM FCF of $10.3 billion (FCF yield ~10.2%), and a trailing P/E of 14.65× — 64% below Adobe's own 5-year average and 50% below enterprise software peer median. The article covers all nine required areas and closes with a structured bull/bear framework anchored on the June 11 Q2 FY2026 earnings report.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 05. 21:44:11

Alphabet (GOOGL) — accelerating revenue, a 63%-growth cloud, and two live DOJ cases

Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) passes all three hard screening criteria with ROE of 27.4% / 32.9% / 35.7% for FY2023–FY2025 (TTM 38.9%), positive FCF of $69.5B / $72.8B / $73.3B across the same three years, and a trailing P/E of 28.40×. The article covers all nine required information areas: business model (four revenue segments with Google Cloud as the fastest-growing major cloud at +63% YoY), ROE table with EDGAR methodology note, FCF bar chart, dual-axis revenue/earnings growth chart, full 8-peer valuation comparison table, balance sheet (D/E 0.20, interest coverage 111.85×, Moody's Aa2 / S&P AA+), six risk factors (DOJ search, DOJ ad tech, EU DMA, AI disruption, CapEx commitment, insider selling), near-term catalysts (Q2 earnings late July, analyst consensus $433 avg PT, Waymo expansion, June 8 ex-div), and competitive moat (search network effects, Android/Chrome lock-in, Cloud vertical stack, 13 products × 1B+ users). Closes with a structured bull/bear framework anchored on Q2 Cloud growth rate and DOJ search case timeline.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 04. 21:32:06

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) — ROE #1 among large US banks, a $50B buyback, and the Dimon question

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of ~17.1% / 18.2% / 19.8% for FY2023–FY2025 (highest in its 8-bank peer group), positive OCF-minus-CapEx FCF of $61.2B / $66.1B / $74.2B, and a trailing P/E of 14.41x — only 5% above the peer median while the ROE lead is 4–9 percentage points. The article covers all nine required information areas: business model (4-segment breakdown: CCB, CIB, AWM, Corporate), ROE table with FY2023 data-source discrepancy disclosed, dual-methodology FCF chart, revenue + earnings growth chart, full 8-bank peer valuation comparison table (P/E, forward P/E, P/B, ROE, dividend yield), bank-appropriate balance sheet analysis using CET1 (13.7% Q1 2026 vs 11.5% minimum), five risk factors (Dimon succession ~$40B 5% impact, $40B+ cumulative regulatory exposure, insider selling pattern, NII rate risk, low short interest), near-term catalysts (Q2 July 14 earnings, 14-year dividend growth streak at $1.50/quarter, $50B buyback, analyst consensus $336–342 target), and competitive moat (scale $4.25T+, 52% vs 61% efficiency ratio vs BAC, #1 IB fees, $17B tech budget). Closes with a structured bull/bear framework anchored on July 14 NII trajectory and 33.6% P/E premium vs. 5-year average.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 03. 21:44:52

Microsoft (MSFT) — 30% ROE, $71.6B FCF, and a P/E 22% below its own 5-year average

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 35.09% / 32.83% / 29.65% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR XBRL verified, each year well above the 15% threshold); FCF of $59.5B / $74.1B / $71.6B (all positive, FY2025 dip driven entirely by $64.6B AI CapEx); and a trailing P/E of 26.28x — 22.6% below its own 5-year average of 33.96x and roughly at peer median. The article covers all nine required information areas: business model and three-segment breakdown, year-by-year ROE table, FCF chart and trend, valuation metrics with 7-peer comparison table, net income / operating income / margin trends, balance sheet (D/E 11.8%, interest coverage 80.3x, AAA/Aaa/AAA tri-agency rating), five risk factors (FTC antitrust, EU DMA, AI CapEx ROI, cybersecurity, insider activity), near-term catalysts (July 2026 Q4 earnings, M365 price increases effective July 2026, 27% analyst consensus upside), and competitive moat (46.8% operating margin vs. peers, 450M+ M365 seats, Azure share gains vs. AWS). A bull/bear framework closes the article.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 02. 21:28:22

Mastercard (MA) — 193% ROE, $17.8B FCF, and a P/E 20% below its own 5-year average

Mastercard (NYSE: MA) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 161.6% / 198.5% / 193.5% for FY2023–FY2025 (buyback-driven; ROIC 95%); FCF of $10.89B / $13.59B / $16.43B with TTM at $17.07B; and a trailing P/E of 28.65×, 20.6% below its own 5-year average of 36.09× and 14% cheaper on P/FCF than Visa. The article covers the asset-light network model, the full ROE/ROIC table, FCF trend, revenue/margin chart, a 6-peer valuation table, balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA 0.89×, interest coverage 27.9×), five risk factors including the CCCA and $38B settlement, late-July Q2 2026 earnings, and a bull/bear framework.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 06. 01. 21:39:20

Visa (V) — 48.5% ROE, $19.7B FCF, and a P/E at its lowest point in five years

Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) passes all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 34.0% / 39.8% / 48.5% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR XBRL verified); FCF of $14.5B / $17.9B / $19.7B (TTM: $21.5B); and a trailing P/E of 28.45x, the lowest level since 2022 and 17.7% below the stock's own 5-year average of 34.56x. The article covers the asset-light business model, the full ROE table, a FCF bar chart, revenue/margin line chart, a 6-peer valuation comparison table, balance sheet data (D/E 0.64x, interest coverage 32.6x, S&P AA–/Moody's Aa3), and a bull/bear framework anchored to the DOJ antitrust lawsuit, the Credit Card Competition Act, and the Q3 FY2026 earnings date of approximately July 28, 2026.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 05. 31. 21:34:34

PGR (Progressive Corporation) — America's #1 auto insurer, ROE accelerating to 37%, P/E at a 5-year low near $190

Progressive Corporation (NYSE: PGR) clears all three hard screening criteria: ROE of 19.25% / 33.14% / 37.29% for FY2023–FY2025 (SEC EDGAR XBRL verified); three consecutive years of positive and growing FCF ($10.4B / $14.8B / $17.2B); and a trailing P/E of 9.68x sitting 46% below its own 5-year median of 17.91x. The article covers Progressive's telematics-driven underwriting model, the full SEC-sourced ROE table, FCF trend, a 5-peer valuation comparison table (TRV/ALL/CB/HIG/CINF), balance sheet data (D/E 0.26x, interest coverage 50.9x, AM Best A+ / Fitch AA), risk factors (earnings normalization, BI severity, CFO transition, insider selling), the variable dividend structure, and a bull/bear framework anchored to Q2 2026 combined ratio and net premiums written growth.

US Stock Pick: 3-Year ROE > 15%2026. 05. 30. 21:35:00

LIN (Linde plc) — the world's largest industrial gas company, ROE expanding to 18%, trading near a 5-year P/E low with a $10B project backlog

Linde plc (NASDAQ: LIN) passes all three hard screening criteria: three-year ROE of 15.61% / 17.23% / 18.04% (FY2023–FY2025, SEC EDGAR verified), five consecutive years of positive FCF ($4.9B–$6.6B annually), and a trailing P/E of 33.0x that sits 8% below its own 5-year average. The article covers Linde's on-site take-or-pay gas supply model and its near-absolute switching costs, the FCF compression story (CapEx up 70% in five years for hydrogen and clean energy buildout), a full peer valuation table vs. APD / SHW / ECL / PPG / DD / LYB, balance sheet health (D/E 0.75x, interest coverage 15.5x), six risk factors including a 1,156:1 insider sell-to-buy ratio and rising debt, Q1 2026's record 27.8% operating margin and raised FY2026 guidance, and a bull-vs-bear thesis framed around whether Q2 FCF recovery justifies the premium multiples.